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March 18, 2007

Comments

Nizam Bashir

Dear Lenny,

Maybe WMD is an acronym for something else - Weapons of Mass Deception? ;) I know where they have truckloads of that. Here is a hint, its not in Iraq.

lennybruce

Hi Nizam,

Thats a good one - havent heard it before. As to where they are located, let me see... 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington DC? In that big White House's Oval Office.. thats my guess.

Nizo

Sorry Lennybruce, but the Niet Niet Niet reminded me of the Da Lieberman campaign and I laughed so hard I'll need to be restitched.

I know your post is serious, but on a humourous note:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPE9d3GY4B4&mode=related&search=

lennybruce

Very funny and regardless of how serious or not a post may be, humour is always welcome. Now I also know there are lots of clips from that satire show which is very funny.

Hope all is well in your neck of the woods.

Nizo

Lennybruce,
I'd like to hear your opinion on the partitioning of Iraq into 3 states. There's more than one school of thought on the issue. I think it's happening organically due to the inter-communal bloodshed. It's a repeat of the Balkan tragedy, only the terrain is much less hilly and the cleansing wholesale. Do you think the central government is strong enough to keep the country intact, especially if the Americans leave?

lennybruce

Hi Nizo,

Thats a tough question. One thought is that the Iraqis should do whatever they want. But given the fact that all the current dynamics were set in motion by america's invasion, that approach is an uncomfortable one for me at least. You mention the Balkans, and if we look further afield there is a lot of 'devolutionary' tribalism going on in many places including the republics of the former Soviet Union so that does seem to be a trend. The central Iraqi government is certainly not strong enough with or without the Americans. One question to ask is whether Iraq will be a source of more stability or more instability if it is partitioned. Another is what happens primarily to the Sunnis? A semi or totally independent Kurdish north will likely stabilize although that could in the longer term destabilize Turkey. A Shi'ite south could become strongly aligned with Iran and that could destabilize the Gulf states which would be a huge disaster. And the Sunnis would likely be almost anhialated in partition also likely leading to Anbar becoming a great place for Al Qaeda. In short, I don't know where wisdom lies on this question. But as I wrote in an earlier post, the Americans started this thing and they have a major responsibility to be part of whatever solution. And to do that, America needs some major mea culpa action, some humility in asking for help from the nations in the region and a willingness to do most of the bankrolling of whatever the region wants as a solution. And I dont see those things happening.

I am afraid that there are now forces in motion that are beyond anyone's control and that means the ultimate solution is anyone's guess.

What do you think?

Nizo

"I am afraid that there are now forces in motion that are beyond anyone's control and that means the ultimate solution is anyone's guess."

I agree... I heard on the radio last week that Bahrain brought in 3000 ex-Baathist Sunni policemen. The Shiite community there is quite concerned. I have a feeling the shiite majority there will eventually be asking for more power. You also have the Shiites in Dammam in East KSA, they've been oppressed for far too long. So yes, I think more fragmentation is on the way for the region.

lennybruce

Hi Nizo,

That news is indeed disturbing. I wasn't aware of that. So the Sunni - Shia fracture continues to spread further like a precarious fault line. If the level and type of horrible violence we see between these two communities in Iraq is an indication of what could happen elsewhere then we are maybe in for some real ugly sh*t. And to think it was all set in motion by some really stupid white men in Washington is beyond comprehension. I hope they all burn in hell.

Be well my friend.

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