You have undoubtedly noticed that Iran has pretty much disappeared from the mainstream media. This gives people the incorrect idea that it's all over. Although the government has been very successful in quelling large public gatherings through violence, intimidation and mass arrests it is clear that this thing is anything but over. It has perhaps gone into a new and slow-moving phase where most of the action is behind the scenes. But as many expert commentators have said over the past weeks, it is going to be impossible to get this genie back into its bottle.
So what has happened the last few days? We finally have some news about Persiankiwi, the nighttime chanting continues and according to many is growing still in intensity and there are plans forming for a national strike in the coming week. But the real story at the moment is the continued and by many measures growing split among the country's top clerics and political elite. So that's where we will begin.
Clerical and political split
This
is now perhaps the major story of what's going on. And although much of
what is happening is out of the public eye, there is a lot happening in
full view. We in the West in particular are conditioned to perceive
Iran as one massive monolithic and impenetrable slab of clerical dictatorship and religious extremism. The events of the past week should lay that misconception to rest in a big way.
The most shocking and telling public statements come from at least two major spiritual leaders: Ayatollah Hadi Ghaffari and Ayatollah Seyed Jalaleddin Taheri. These are not the only spiritual leaders who have criticized events since the election but they have this week made or published statements that directly and harshly criticize Supreme Leader Khamanei.
Ayatollah Ghaffari is no boy scout or reformer. In fact he was insrtumental in creating Hezbollah. This makes his brutal frontal assault on the Supreme Leader a clear signal that something is going on behind the scenes as these kinds of public rebukes were unthinkable three weeks ago. A few excerpts:
“Khamenei, your recent actions and behavior has brought shame to us clerics. Our image in the streets and bazaars has been tarnished as everyone is placing us in the same category as Ahmadinejad.”
“Khamenei, you are wrong, your actions are wrong. I believe in the velayat e fagih more than you.”
“I’m not preaching these messages so that I could be associated with the West. I loathe the West and will fight to the last drop of my blood before I or my land succumbs to the West. On the contrary, I’m preaching these messages on the count that the respect for our profession is gone.”
“Young people are not praying anymore, whose fault is that? It is your fault Mr. Khamenei, it’s your fault for placing us in the same line as that lunatic Ahmadinejad.”
“Ahmadinejad is nobody, you should congregate with us instead of him.”
The statement mentions 'velayat e fagih' which is the 'concept of the governance of the Islamic jurist as Supreme Leader' upon which the Islamic Republic of Iran is based. Here again, perhaps a surprise to many, the interpretation of this concept is anything but monolithic and there is even much room for the somewhat Western idea of seperation of powers between the executive branch and the 'spiritual branch' if I may call it that. This article gives an excellent introduction to this important concept and how it is being contested now amongst leading Iranian clerics. The statement by Ayatollah Seyed Jalaleddin Taheri was no less harsh. Taheri was a close friend of Ayatollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader, and for years led Friday prayers in one of Iran's important provinces. In his statement Taheri refers often to Khomeini's examples indirectly implying that today's religious leaders have betrayed the Islamic revolution with their current behavior:
"Did the imam [Khomeini] believe that those who are supposed to be impartial should formally and official support a particular candidate? Can the Guardian Council, several of whose members publicly supported and continue to support Mir-Hossein Mousavi's rival, address electoral complaints?"
"Did the imam [Khomeini] allow the public property of Muslims to be used by one candidate without any limits….and has religion given you such permission? Why does the protection of law only apply to you and your friends, and [why] do religion, law and the imam only become dear when you can benefit from them… where does your totalitarianism end?”
"I thought that in light of the interests of the nation, revolution and country, perhaps the regime's officials would address irregularities that occurred prior to and during the election in a fair and just manner, but it is obvious that officials are not willing to address the fraud and rather intend to suppress the protesters using security and terror tactics. I, as a minor clergyman, in unison with the majority of people who lost their vote, consider this election to be manipulated and null, and consider the reappointment of the head of the government for a second term, to be illegitimate and a usurpation."
On the political front, this week also saw bold statements being released by Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi and former President Mohammad Khatami. Despite great pressure from the authorities, these three were determined to increase their verbal pressure on the government. I am not sure about the statements of Mousavi and Khatami, but Karoubi's statement was domestically limited in its distribution as the newspaper that was publishing it was closed for several days by the government to prevent its publication. Other tweets coming out of Iran today and yesterday continue to point to the fact that this internal power struggle, which has clearly spilled out into the public arena with these statements, is having some practical implications:
- Some kind of big meeting among Mullahs in Mashad yesterday. Ahmadinejad's visit to the holy city had been canceled
- Mashad visit by Ahmaji'd cancelled as rough reception threatened.
That this traditional pilgrimage of each newly elected President to Mashad, Iran's holiest city, has apprently been canceled could be of great significance. Twitters seem to indicate that there was a question if even thousands of Basijis could guarantee Ahmadinejad's security and some tweets indicate that the trip may have been canceled due to the objection of some clerics. The Twitter reports that Hashemi Rafsanjani has refused to lead Tehran's most important Friday prayer services for the second time in a row is also very significant: "Just confirmed independently that Rafsanjani refused to lead Friday Prayers in Tehran this week. That makes 2x now." All in all, it is clear that there is a major unresolved split among the country's leading clerics. We'll have to see what the coming days and weeks bring. Persiankiwi
Tuesday night Twitter began to buzz with some news about Persiankiwi. One of the Iranian Twitters who would know tweeted a short but clear message around 22.00 Tehran time: "Persian Kiwi is not arrested, but he does not have access to internet.” This was shortly confirmed by another trusted source in several sequential tweets: "Persiankiwi is safe and is contacting a few of us. The ONLY Persiankiwi is still persiankiwi. I believe they R well and safe. I have had contact with Persiankiwi, they have knowledge of our private conversations from weeks ago, so I am not worried."
These messages were retweeted hundreds if not thousands of times over the last few days and many people kept asking for more information. One of the three Twitters who have seemed to be the closest to Persiankiwi tweeted yesterday: "Fellows, don't inquire too much about Persiankiwi. He isn't in any position to tweet but he isn't arrested either." It seems that Persiankiwi's public role in any case has ended as he is likely gone deep 'undergound' to stay out of the hands of the authorities.
Who knows if we will ever know who was behind Persiankiwi but Iranians and the whole world in fact should be very grateful for the incredible work he did in the first two weeks of the 'revolution.' I am thankful he/she/they is safe.
Nighttime chanting
This has become the major form of protest and according to all accounts is still quite strong and perhaps growing. From various Iranian Twitters:
- "Allahu akbar was heard louder than all the previous nights"
- "Situation in Tehrn hasn't calmed down v/much. Ppl still chanting @ nights, loudr & loudr n furious."
- "Allah o Akbar chants going strong at night in large cities like sfahan, shiraz, ahwaz, mashad, tabriz"
And this despite the fact that Basijis are reported to be conducting nighttime raids of private homes of suspected chanters and are rampaging through neighborhoods just before dusk in order to intimidate people.
Nighttime chanting July 2
Basiji intimidation July 1
And this....
- There is a great deal of activity regarding a possible national strike next week during three Shia religious holy days known as the days of seclusion: "NATIONAL Seclusion (aka strike) (15-17 TIR = jul 6-9 Mon-Thurs), ULTIMATE GREEN RALLY" This has also been reported on Mousavi's Facebook giving it much legitimacy. We will have to see if the strike materializes.
- A Islamist lawyer from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has filed a complaint in the Egyptian courts calling for the banning of Ahmadinejad from an international meeting next week in Egypt and his arrest if he shows up:
"Ahmadinejad's visit to the Sinai Peninsula is a threat to national security and he has to be banned from entering the country, and if he does, he has to be arrested and prosecuted... If he is not the legitimate president, then he shouldn't be received in Egypt as such. His illegitimacy is obvious in the protests against him inside Iran."
- For two very chilling first-person accounts from individuals who have been arrested and released see these articles in the LA Times and The Gaurdian.
As always my thoughts and prayers are with all those in Iran and in particular those who have been arrested and may be undergoing terrible acts of torture.
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